Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021/2025

Fourth quarter of 2024: No growth spurt at the end of the year.

Even at the end of 2024, the Baden-Württemberg economy will not be able to break free from stagnation. This is the conclusion of the latest Nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim. In the fourth quarter of 2024, gross domestic product (GDP) in Baden-Württemberg - adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects - rose slightly by 0.2%. However, this small increase is nowhere near enough to make up for the negative development in the previous quarters. For the two subsequent quarters, slightly higher quarterly growth rates of 0.5% and 0.4% were recorded. However, it remains to be seen whether this marks the end of the recessionary phase that characterized 2023 or whether it will continue

Quarter-on-quarter rates of change in GDP, 2022-2025

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources: 2022q3 to 2024q3: Ministry of Economy, Labour and Tourism; 2024q4 to 2025q2: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.}

The forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the two subsequent quarters were calculated using a nowcasting and forecasting model developed by the University of Hohenheim in collaboration with the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW). The term nowcasting means that the GDP forecast is for the current quarter, for which the official calculation will not be published until the following quarter.

Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level

The IAW-Hohenheim nowcast arrives at a similar GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2024 as comparable nowcasts for the federal level. The GDP nowcast of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK) for the fourth quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 from November 13, 2024 as well as the nowcast and forecast values of the ifo Institute (ifoCAST 2024) published on December 6, 2024 are used for this purpose. The forecasts of the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group dated September 26, 2024 are also included in the comparison as a reference value. The following figure shows a comparison of the various forecasts for the federal level and for Baden-Württemberg

Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2022q2 to 2024q3: Ministry of Economics, Labour and Tourism; 2024q4 to 2025q1 IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the federal level: 2022q1 to 2024q3: Federal Statistical Office; 2024q4 to 2025q1: ifoCAST, Joint Economic Forecast 2024 Project Group, BMWK 2024. All data are price, seasonally and working-day adjusted, seasonal adjustment of national accounts values according to X13 JDemetra+.}

For the fourth quarter, the ifoCast and the forecast of the Joint Economic Forecast produce almost identical figures to the IAW-Hohenheim-Nowcast for Baden-Württemberg, while the BMWK predicts a higher growth rate of 0.5%. With regard to the first quarter, the ifo Institute is forecasting a return to zero growth, while the other forecasts predict slightly positive GDP growth. Overall, there are no indications of a positive upward trend in the economy until spring 2025. There are also no systematic special influences for Baden-Württemberg that would point in this direction.

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2022 (in German)