Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021/2025

Third quarter of 2024: Economy in the cold zone.

Gross domestic product (GDP) continued to decline in Baden-Württemberg in the third quarter of 2024. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, GDP - adjusted for seasonal and working day effects - fell by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter. If the results of the nowcast are confirmed, this would be the fifth quarter in a row with negative economic growth. There is also no fundamental change in the trend for the two subsequent quarters. According to the forecast values, the Baden-Württemberg economy will shrink by just under 2% in 2024. This would significantly exceed the decline in 2023, which amounted to 0.6%. Weak growth of 0.2% to 0.3% is forecast for both the third quarter of 2024 and the first quarter of 2025.

Quarter-on-quarter rates of change in GDP, 2022-2025

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources: 2022q2 to 2024q2: Ministry of Economy, Labour and Tourism; 2024q3 to 2025q1: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.}

The forecasts for the third quarter of 2024 and the two subsequent quarters were calculated using a nowcasting and forecasting model developed by the University of Hohenheim in collaboration with the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW). The term nowcasting means that the GDP forecast is for the current quarter, for which the official calculation will not be published until the following quarter.

Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level

The forecast for Baden-Württemberg can be compared with forecasts for the federal level. For this purpose, the GDP forecast of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK) for the second quarter of 2024 from August 26, 2024 and the ifo's nowcast and forecast values published on September 6, 2024 (ifoCAST 2024) are used. The forecasts of the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group from March 2024 are also included in the comparison as a reference figure, in particular to take account of the decline in the growth forecasts in the last six months. The following figure shows a comparison of the various forecasts for the federal level and for Baden-Württemberg.

Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2022q2 to 2024q2: Ministry of Economics, Labour and Tourism; 2024q3 to 2025q1 IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the federal level: 2022q1 to 2024q2: Federal Statistical Office; 2024q2 to 2024q4: ifoCAST, Joint Economic Forecast 2024 Project Group, BMWK 2024. All data are price, seasonally and working-day adjusted, seasonal adjustment of national accounts values according to X13 JDemetra+.}

The BMWK's nowcast for the third quarter of 2024 for the federal level is exactly the same as the IAW-Hohenheim nowcast for Baden-Württemberg, while the ifo nowcast is significantly more pessimistic at -0.9%. However, these differences must also be interpreted in light of the economic development in the previous quarters, which was significantly weaker in Baden-Württemberg than in the rest of Germany. There are therefore no signs of a more favorable development than at the national level. The joint forecast was unable to predict the decline in GDP in the third quarter of 2024. In the subsequent quarters, the forecasts converge towards low positive growth.

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2021 (in German)