Economic forecasts for Baden-Württemberg 2021/2024

Second quarter of 2024: Only weak signs of growth.

Despite slightly higher current and forecast growth rates, economic development in Baden-Württemberg remains subdued. There is still no sign of a consistent upward trend. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, gross domestic product (GDP) - adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects - will increase at a growth rate of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter. However, this positive development may not be sustainable, as forecasts for the third and fourth quarters predict a temporary return to zero growth.

Quarter-on-quarter rates of change in GDP, 2022-2024

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources: 2022q1 to 2024q1: Ministry of Economy, Labour and Tourism; 2024q2 to 2024q4: IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. The data are adjusted for price, seasonal and working-day effects.}

The forecasts for the second quarter of 2024 and the two subsequent quarters were calculated using a nowcasting and forecasting model developed by the University of Hohenheim in collaboration with the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW). The term nowcasting means that the GDP forecast is for the current quarter, for which the official calculation will not be published until the following quarter.

Baden-Württemberg compared with the national level

The forecast for Baden-Württemberg can be compared with forecasts for the federal level. The GDP nowcast of the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK) for the second quarter of 2024 from May 29, 2024 and the ifo nowcast and forecast values published on June 7, 2024 (ifoCAST 2024) are used for this purpose. The forecasts of the Joint Economic Forecast Project Group from March 2024 are also included in the comparison. The following figure shows a comparison of the various forecasts for the federal level and for Baden-Württemberg.

Quarterly GDP growth rates: Comparison with the federal level

^{© IAW and University of Hohenheim 2024. Data sources for Baden-Württemberg: 2022q1 to 2024q1: Ministry of Economics, Labour and Tourism; 2024q2 to 2024q4 IAW and University of Hohenheim, own calculations. Data sources for the federal level: 2022q1 to 2024q1: Federal Statistical Office; 2024q2 to 2024q4: ifoCAST, Joint Economic Forecast 2024 Project Group, BMWK 2024. All data are price, seasonally and working-day adjusted, seasonal adjustment of national accounts values according to X13 JDemetra+.}

Similar to the IAW Hohenheim nowcast for Baden-Württemberg, the nowcasts for the second quarter of 2024 for the federal level predict a small but positive change in GDP. The BMWK's nowcast is comparatively pessimistic with growth of 0.1%. The forecasts for the third quarter are slightly more positive at the national level than the forecasts for Baden-Württemberg.

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2024 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2023 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 2nd quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 1st quarter 2022 (in German)

Forecast for the 4th quarter 2021 (in German)

Forecast for the 3rd quarter 2021 (in German)