Forecast of church tax revenue of the Evangelical Church in Württemberg in 2005 and 2006

As part of this project, the church tax revenue of the Evangelische Landeskriche in Württemberg was also forecast using panel econometric models in addition to the multivariate econometric time series models used to date.

The special feature of the time series econometric models already in use is that the forecasts are only based on facts that are certain at the time of the forecast. Forecasts using panel econometric models, on the other hand, are based on expectations of the development of key influencing factors in the future, such as economic development.

The best possible results can be achieved for an ex-ante forecast of church tax revenue, particularly through the mutual supplementation of both forecasting methods.