Forecast of the church tax revenue of the Evangelical Church in Württemberg

As part of this project, the church tax revenue of the Evangelical Church in Württemberg was forecast twice (in January and July 2003) up to December 2004 using modern multivariate econometric time series models.

The forecasting methods used were developed and empirically tested by the IAW in collaboration with Prof. Dr. Gerhard Wagenhals (University of Hohenheim). They are characterized in particular by the fact that current economic developments can be incorporated into the forecasts more quickly than is the case with pure ARIMA models, for example.

In order to ensure that the selected models are also the “best” at the respective time of the forecast, they were readjusted to the changed time series structures.