Gross domestic product (GDP) continued to decline in Baden-Württemberg in the third quarter of 2024. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, GDP - adjusted for seasonal and working day effects - fell by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter. If the results of the nowcast are confirmed, this would be the fifth quarter in a row with negative economic growth. No fundamental change in the trend is discernible for the two subsequent quarters either.
Of the 125,000 Ukrainians seeking protection in Baden-Württemberg (as of the end of 2023), around one in five people (22 percent) of working age are now in employment. Around four out of five Ukrainian employees are subject to social security contributions, although the proportion of women is slightly lower than that of men. On average, 10 percent of all companies in Baden-Württemberg report contact with a person who has fled from Ukraine (previous year: 7 percent). Around 40 percent of companies with at least one contact request reported a subsequent employment relationship (previous year: 29 percent). Companies with vacancies are four times more likely to employ Ukrainian refugees than companies without vacancies. In particular, companies with vacancies that require a low level of qualification are more likely to employ a refugee from Ukraine.
Despite slightly higher current and forecast growth rates, economic development in Baden-Württemberg remains subdued. There is still no sign of a consistent upward trend. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, gross domestic product (GDP) - adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects - will increase at a growth rate of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter. However, this positive development may not be sustainable, as forecasts for the third and fourth quarters predict a temporary return to zero growth.
Eine empirische Analyse auf der Basis des IAB-Betriebspanels Baden-Württemberg sowie verknüpfter Linked-Employer-Employee Daten, IAW-Kurzbericht 5/2019
