Even by the end of 2024, Baden-Württemberg's economy will not be able to escape stagnation. This is the conclusion of the latest Nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim. In the fourth quarter of 2024, gross domestic product (GDP) in Baden-Württemberg - adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects - rose slightly by 0.2%. However, this small increase is nowhere near enough to make up for the negative development in the previous quarters.
Gross domestic product (GDP) continued to decline in Baden-Württemberg in the third quarter of 2024. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, GDP - adjusted for seasonal and working day effects - fell by 0.2% in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the second quarter. If the results of the nowcast are confirmed, this would be the fifth quarter in a row with negative economic growth. No fundamental change in the trend is discernible for the two subsequent quarters either.
Despite slightly higher current and forecast growth rates, economic development in Baden-Württemberg remains subdued. There is still no sign of a consistent upward trend. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, gross domestic product (GDP) - adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects - will increase at a growth rate of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the first quarter. However, this positive development may not be sustainable, as forecasts for the third and fourth quarters predict a temporary return to zero growth.
No significant economic growth is expected in Baden-Württemberg in the first quarter of 2024 either. According to the latest nowcast from the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, gross domestic product (GDP) - adjusted for seasonal and working day effects - will only increase at a growth rate of 0.1% compared to the fourth quarter of 2023. The two subsequent quarters will also be characterised by low economic momentum, with the forecast growth rate moving only slightly upwards.
Overall, the different types of courses offer heterogeneous groups of participants good opportunities to further develop their linguistic and social integration. On the other hand, job-related German language support only partially achieves the desired effects in terms of labour market integration in the period of up to 30 months after the start of a vocational language course. During the language acquisition phase, vocational language courses, which are usually full-time programmes, can only be combined with gainful employment to a limited extent. Even after completing the course, former participants are less likely to be employed than comparable non-participants during the observation period.
In Germany, the shadow economy will grow by 38 billion euros in 2024 to 481 billion euros and in relation to GDP by half a percentage point to 11.3 percent. This increase follows even stronger growth in the previous year. previous year. The most important reason for the increase in the shadow economy is the weak development of the official gross domestic product. The growth since since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic is similar to the average for of 20 major industrialized countries.
The weak growth of the previous quarter will continue in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.2%. Together with the negative growth in the first two quarters of this year, this results in an annual growth rate of minus 0.4% for 2023.
These are the results of recent calculations by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim.
In the third quarter of 2023, the growth of Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) will slip slightly into negative territory. In the two following quarters, there could be weakly positive economic growth again. As far as can be foreseen at present, 2023 will nevertheless be recorded in the statistics as a year with very weak growth. These are the results of current calculations by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim.
