Skilled foreign workers who have left - missed opportunities for the German labor market?
Between 2000 and 2020, more than 18 million foreigners immigrated to Germany, while at the same time more than 13 million foreigners left the country (excluding refugee migration). A new study by the IAW and the SOKO Institute on behalf of the Federal Employment Agency shows which foreign workers are increasingly migrating and analyzes the reasons for this. For this purpose, approximately 2,000 emigrants from ten important countries of origin of skilled labor immigration were contacted via social media after emigration and subsequently interviewed with a questionnaire.
In-company training participation in Baden-Württemberg increased slightly in 2021, but more training positions remained unfilled.
Both the net and gross training company rates increased again in the country from 49% to 52% and from 27% to 29% respectively, while the proportion of companies that did not provide in-house vocational training despite having a training authorization fell slightly from around 27% to around 26%. In Germany and western Germany, however, the net training company rates were four percentage points higher and the unutilized in-company training potential was also around two percentage points lower in each case.
In the 2020/2021 training year, around 28% of the in-company training places on offer in Baden-Württemberg remained unfilled, compared with around 23% in the 2019/2020 training year. At 72%, the filling rate in the state was at roughly the same level as in western Germany (73%).
New evidence on lifetime earnings from vocational training and higher education compared: the role of gender and career interruptions.
Education pays off! A recent study by the IAW on behalf of the Stuttgart Chamber of Industry and Commerce confirms that higher education leads to higher lifetime income and protects against unemployment. In particular, people without education are left behind at an early stage. A comparison between vocational training and higher education shows that higher education often pays off late in life (after the age of 40). On average, people who move up the educational ladder, i.e., those who continue their studies after vocational training or go on to obtain a master's degree or technician's certificate, earn similar amounts to those who study immediately after leaving school. Due to the longer educational phases, academics have to earn their lifetime income in a shorter period of time. Therefore, interruptions in employment are to be viewed particularly negatively and this can also influence the desire to have children.
Rising energy prices and high inflation rates are currently worsening the longer-term economic outlook. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2022 remained at roughly the same level as in the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters. For the time being, Baden-Württemberg is not predicted to enter a recession - a decline in GDP over two quarters. However, this outcome is on a knife-edge in view of great uncertainty about geopolitical and global economic developments.
The Tübingen-Hohenheim-Economics (THE) Association cordially invites you to this year’s THE (Christmas) Workshop combining a Young Researcher Workshop and a Mini Course. We plan to hold the event on campus, subject to the University’s Corona regulation.
The 7th Bundesbank-IAW Lecture on European Economic Integration was held on 11 July 2022 by Professor Thierry Mayer from the Institut d'études politiques de Paris (SciencesPo). Under the heading "The United States of Europe", Professor Mayer asked to what extent the EU is already a space without borders. In fact, the analysis based on so-called gravity models shows that trade barriers within the EU hardly exist any more. Whether a supplier is based in Lorraine, Luxembourg or Rhineland-Palatinate, for example, is no longer relevant. At the same time, integration has increased considerably in the last 15 years. However, the welfare gains from domestic trade are unevenly distributed. Above all, the Central and Eastern European countries have gained. For example, consumer welfare in Hungary is 15% higher every year than it would be without the EU.
