In Germany, the shadow economy will grow by 38 billion euros in 2024 to 481 billion euros and in relation to GDP by half a percentage point to 11.3 percent. This increase follows even stronger growth in the previous year. previous year. The most important reason for the increase in the shadow economy is the weak development of the official gross domestic product. The growth since since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic is similar to the average for of 20 major industrialized countries.
The weak growth of the previous quarter will continue in the fourth quarter of 2023. Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, the gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 0.2%. Together with the negative growth in the first two quarters of this year, this results in an annual growth rate of minus 0.4% for 2023.
These are the results of recent calculations by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim.
In the third quarter of 2023, the growth of Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) will slip slightly into negative territory. In the two following quarters, there could be weakly positive economic growth again. As far as can be foreseen at present, 2023 will nevertheless be recorded in the statistics as a year with very weak growth. These are the results of current calculations by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim.
As of today, Prof. Dr. Martin Biewen (2nd from right) takes over as Scientific Director of the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) in Tübingen. He succeeds Prof. Dr. Wilhelm Kohler, who held this office for ten years. In the future, Professor Biewen will lead the IAW together with Prof. Dr. Bernhard Boockmann.
Baden-Württemberg economy: The weak phase continues (in German).
According to the current nowcast of the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW) and the University of Hohenheim, the Baden-Württemberg economy will grow by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2023 compared to the previous quarter. Together with the forecasts for the third and fourth quarters, this results in a projected growth rate for 2023 as a whole of 0.6 percent compared to 2022. This would mean that the economy would only grow by half as much as in 2022.
Press release March 16, 2023
Baden-Württemberg in winter recession (in German).
In the first quarter of 2023, the economy in Baden-Württemberg is expected to decline by 0.2 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2022, adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects. According to preliminary calculations, economic output already declined by 0.3 per cent in the previous quarter. According to the common definition, Baden-Württemberg is then in a recession phase.
Press release February 7, 2023
Significant increase in the shadow economy in 2023 due to unfavourable economic development (in German).
For Germany and the year 2023, a strong increase in the shadow economy of 60 billion euros (or from 9.4% to 10.2% of the gross domestic product) is expected compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to the forecast unfavourable economic development. In Germany, however, the shadow economy is growing less strongly than in most other larger industrialised countries.
Press release December 21, 2022
Growth comes to a standstill (in German).
In the fourth quarter of 2022, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 percent compared to the previous quarter after price and seasonal adjustments, according to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim. Slight economic growth of 0.3 percent is again forecast for the first quarter of 2023. Thus, the predicted economic situation worsens compared to the previous nowcast from September 2022.
