Migrating foreign skilled workers - missed opportunities for the German labour market? (in German)
Between 2000 and 2020, more than 18 million foreigners migrated to Germany, while at the same time more than 13 million foreigners left the country (excluding refugee migration). The reasons given by the emigrants for their return migration are manifold. About a quarter of the respondents left Germany for professional reasons (unemployment, no suitable employment, lack of recognition of professional qualifications). Another quarter of the emigrations were for reasons of residence law. A lack of social integration is also frequently cited as a reason, while economic or family reasons are less common. In many cases, the departure results from a bundle of different structural and individual factors.
Press release September 21, 2022
On the brink of recession (in German).
According to the current nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) stagnated in the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter. Slightly positive growth is forecast for the subsequent quarters (see appendix). Thus, the Baden-Württemberg economy does not yet appear to be entering recession in 2022. However, this result is on a knife edge in view of great uncertainties.
Press release June 13, 2022
Considerable pressure on the economy (in German).
The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine has massively worsened economic expectations. However, these developments are still only partly reflected in the economic value added and the corresponding short-term forecasts. According to the current Nowcast of the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, but slightly positive growth is forecast again for the following quarter.
Press release March 17, 2022
Even without war in Ukraine, growth prospects would be weak (in German).
According to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 after price and seasonal adjustments. Positive but overall weak growth is forecast again for the two subsequent quarters. This forecast does not yet take into account the effects of the war in Ukraine.
Press release February 8, 2022
Significant decline in the shadow economy in Germany (in German).
For Germany and the year 2022, a decline in the shadow economy is expected compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to the economic recovery after the Corona pandemic. The plans of the "traffic light" coalition to increase the minimum wage and expand mini-jobs have had the opposite effect on the shadow economy..
Press release December 22, 2021
Fourth Quarter 2021: Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg - Zero Growth Remains for the Time Being (in German).
The economic recovery from the Corona crisis is receding further into the distance in Baden-Württemberg. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the third quarter of 2021 after adjusting for prices and seasonal factors. The third quarter had already developed weaker than expected. According to the forecast for the two subsequent quarters, the weak development will continue into 2022. However, all current forecasts are still subject to considerable uncertainty due to the severe economic dislocations during the Corona pandemic, as the further forecast intervals show.
Press release September 29, 2021
Emerging from the Corona Crisis with Slower Growth - Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg (in German).
According to current estimates, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the second quarter of 2021, adjusted for price and seasonal effects. This means that the positive economic development of the second quarter has continued in the summer of 2021. According to the forecast for the two subsequent quarters, however, this development will weaken. Growth rates around zero are expected for the fall and winter of 2021/22. All these forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty due to the severe economic dislocations during the Corona pandemic.
Press release February 2, 2021
Economic slump due to Corona pandemic causes shadow economy to rise (in German).
According to current calculations, the decline in official economic output and the rise in unemployment have led to a significant increase in the shadow economy in 2020. A slight decline is forecast again for 2021. In addition to the Corona pandemic, the extensive discontinuation of the solidarity surcharge will also determine further developments in 2021.
