Even without war in Ukraine, growth prospects would be weak (in German).
According to the current nowcast by the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2022 compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 after price and seasonal adjustments. Positive but overall weak growth is forecast again for the two subsequent quarters. This forecast does not yet take into account the effects of the war in Ukraine.
Press release February 8, 2022
Significant decline in the shadow economy in Germany (in German).
For Germany and the year 2022, a decline in the shadow economy is expected compared to the previous year. This is mainly due to the economic recovery after the Corona pandemic. The plans of the "traffic light" coalition to increase the minimum wage and expand mini-jobs have had the opposite effect on the shadow economy..
Press release December 22, 2021
Fourth Quarter 2021: Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg - Zero Growth Remains for the Time Being (in German).
The economic recovery from the Corona crisis is receding further into the distance in Baden-Württemberg. According to the latest nowcast from the IAW and the University of Hohenheim, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the third quarter of 2021 after adjusting for prices and seasonal factors. The third quarter had already developed weaker than expected. According to the forecast for the two subsequent quarters, the weak development will continue into 2022. However, all current forecasts are still subject to considerable uncertainty due to the severe economic dislocations during the Corona pandemic, as the further forecast intervals show.
Press release September 29, 2021
Emerging from the Corona Crisis with Slower Growth - Nowcast and Forecast of GDP for Baden-Württemberg (in German).
According to current estimates, Baden-Württemberg's gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2021 compared with the second quarter of 2021, adjusted for price and seasonal effects. This means that the positive economic development of the second quarter has continued in the summer of 2021. According to the forecast for the two subsequent quarters, however, this development will weaken. Growth rates around zero are expected for the fall and winter of 2021/22. All these forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty due to the severe economic dislocations during the Corona pandemic.
Press release February 2, 2021
Economic slump due to Corona pandemic causes shadow economy to rise (in German).
According to current calculations, the decline in official economic output and the rise in unemployment have led to a significant increase in the shadow economy in 2020. A slight decline is forecast again for 2021. In addition to the Corona pandemic, the extensive discontinuation of the solidarity surcharge will also determine further developments in 2021.
Press release October 21, 2020
"Open Government Data": Intended effects largely missed (in German).
Since the mid-1990s, legislators have been striving to open up the administration. One element of this is the provision of administrative data free of charge as "Open Government Data" or "Open Data" for short. This is intended to promote economic growth and increase the transparency of the administration. A new study by the IAW, which was funded by the Hans Böckler Foundation, shows that municipalities are currently providing data and in many cases using it themselves within the administration. However, there are as yet no economic business models based on open data. Demand for the data from civil society is also still weak.
Press release February 4, 2020
Further decline in the shadow economy in Germany in 2020 despite slower economic growth (in German).
The size of the shadow economy will be 322 billion euros in 2020. This is a decrease of 2 billion euros compared with the previous year. The shadow economy in Germany has declined continuously since 2009. The deteriorating economic outlook will dampen this decline in 2020. The still low level of unemployment together together with the expected growth of the official economy, however, will still lead to a slight decline in the shadow economy.
Press release August 2, 2019
Ministry of Science promotes network for good legislation and bureaucracy reduction (in German).
New laws should be easy to understand and apply, not lead to more bureaucracy and create benefits. These are the goals of the Normenkontrollrat Baden-Württemberg, which will be supported in the future by a network of scientists. The Baden-Württemberg Ministry of Science, Research and the Arts (MWK) is funding the network's office, which will be located at the Institute for Applied Economic Research at the University of Tübingen (IAW), from 2019 to 2022.
